nbt observations: AI is changing the way we need to think about Software - The Rise of Software 3.0
September 2025
Authors:
Helmut Lodzik
Founder & CEO
Patrick Funcke
Founder & CTO
TL;DR - Too Long, Didn´t Read
#1 Retrofitting existing Software with AI is like strapping a jet engine to a horse-drawn carriage - the incremental value of adding AI support to existing software is very limited
#2 Using AI to create more software is like building more horse-drawn carriages faster, cheaper and in more colors - creating more software faster and quicker just gives you more mediocre solutions, but nothing new
#3 Re-thinking what we are trying to do with AI in mind is like looking at birds flying and imagining a supersonic jetliner -
Re-thinking the original challenge you are trying to solve in a world where AI exists allows you to create completely new and much better approaches
#4 The true disruption will no longer be traditional Standard-Software but custom. Software 3.0 will be built by AI and will be continuously evolving, morphing and improving directly by user interaction at run-time
# Outlook While the potential for a complete disruption of how we define “software” is obvious, the speed of change is hard to predict. Legacy solutions tend to live a lot longer than expected, while the speed of progress in AI is explosive.
Executive Summary
Less than 5% of AI’s potential is realized today: Despite tremendous advances in AI (like GPT-4 and other large language models), most businesses have only scratched the surface of what these technologies can do. A recent survey found that while nearly all companies are investing in AI, only about 1% consider their AI fully integrated and mature in operations[1]. This means 95–99% of AI’s economic value is still untapped, awaiting new ways of integration.
Current approach – “AI retrofits” – delivers only gimmicks: Many enterprises have reacted to the AI wave by bolting AI features onto legacy software, hoping to boost productivity. Think of adding a ChatGPT-based assistant into a 20-year-old CRM system. These additions can provide convenience (smarter search, auto-suggested text, etc.), but they rarely transform the core experience. It’s akin to attaching a jet engine to a horse-drawn carriage – a powerful tool applied to a fundamentally old design. Early results have been mixed: for example, users of Microsoft’s new AI Copilot in Office reported confusion and disappointing outputs, often giving up and going back to standalone ChatGPT[2]. The hard truth: simply appending AI to existing, static software yields diminishing returns.
AI demands a *“greenfield” rethinking of software: To unlock AI’s full value, we must redesign software from first principles with AI at the center, rather than as an afterthought. This means asking, “If we started from scratch, how would AI solve this problem?” instead of “Where can we plug AI into our app?” Companies need to return to the drawing board (channeling a design-thinking mindset) and imagine entirely new solutions. For example, a traditional used-car marketplace app organizes information by make, model, year, mileage, price, etc. An AI-first reimagination might instead offer a chat-based interface where a buyer simply describes their ideal car – “I need a reliable family SUV under $20k that feels fun to drive” – and the AI handles searching, filtering, and even negotiating, all through natural conversation. These kinds of AI-native, goal-driven designs break from the rigid forms and workflows of the past.
From custom vs. standard to “dynamic” software: Historically, enterprises faced a trade-off between bespoke software (tailored exactly to your needs but expensive and slow to build) and standardized products (one-size-fits-all solutions like SAP that are affordable but force you to adapt your processes)[3]. Cloud and SaaS made software more accessible, but didn’t solve the rigidity of pre-built features. AI now offers a way out: “Software 3.0” – applications that are highly customized and continuously adapting, without the traditional cost and effort. In this new paradigm, software isn’t a fixed product anymore; it becomes a living solution that evolves for each business and user. We get the best of both worlds: the exact fit of a custom app with the scalability of a cloud service.
Dynamic user interfaces (UIs) powered by AI: One immediate impact of AI-native design is the end of bloated, one-size-fits-all UIs. Today’s enterprise software is infamous for feature overload – massive menus and forms built to cover every conceivable use case, most of which a given user doesn’t need[4][5]. In contrast, an AI-driven system can generate a personalized interface in real time for each user, showing only what’s relevant for their role, context, and intent[6][7]. Complexity is hidden until needed. Novice users get guided, simplified flows, while power users can call up advanced functions on demand. In fact, design experts predict “generative UIs” soon will let every end user interact with a tailor-made interface that fits their needs and moment[8][6]. Software adapts to the user, instead of forcing the user to adapt to the software.
Software that morphs and improves continuously: The ultimate vision for Software 3.0 is systems that don’t remain static after deployment. Instead, AI makes software dynamic, able to “learn” from usage and update itself in production. In a fully AI-native environment, you might define your business processes and goals in natural language, and the AI will generate and refine the software to execute them. Over time, as conditions or user behaviors change, the application morphs – optimizing workflows, adding or tweaking features, and even interfacing with other systems autonomously. Early hints of this can be seen in AI DevOps tools: for instance, AI agents can now observe issues in user onboarding and automatically suggest (or implement) improvements in the app’s design. One forward-looking report describes a future where “AI agents continuously design, test, deploy, and adapt software based on real-time business goals and customer behavior,” turning software into a self-improving organism[9][10].
Challenges and the road ahead: Moving to this AI-first, dynamic paradigm won’t happen overnight. Enterprises still have decades of legacy systems that can’t just vanish. Practical concerns around data security, compliance, reliability, and change management are significant. Highly regulated industries will demand proof that AI-driven systems can be controlled and audited. Culturally, organizations must overcome understandable skepticism – both leaders and staff need to trust AI enough to let it take the driver’s seat in software generation. Moreover, developers and IT teams will need to acquire new skills (prompt engineering, AI orchestration, oversight of AI outputs) rather than traditional coding alone. Nevertheless, the direction is clear. AI will fundamentally reshape software development and usage. Businesses that begin evolving toward these AI-native approaches now will have a massive advantage, while those that stick to static software (or superficial AI add-ons) risk being left behind as the gap widens.
Introduction: AI’s Untapped Potential in Software
Artificial Intelligence has made incredible strides in the last few years. Large language models can now write code, draft documents, converse fluently, and answer complex questions. Image generators can create artwork or user interface designs from scratch. These breakthroughs suggest we are on the cusp of a transformative era for technology. Yet the reality inside most organizations feels very different. The vast majority of companies are still using software and business processes that look and operate much as they did a decade ago. The infusion of AI into day-to-day tools and workflows has been modest and uneven. In fact, by some estimates we have realized well under 5% of AI’s ultimate economic value so far[11]. In early 2025, McKinsey ...